Things to think about …
Things to think about arise from interesting articles, written by a variety of people from a variety of countries, who hold a variety of opinions.
The Coming Storm – Power Conflict and Warnings from History
Extracts and notes taken from a recent book written by Odd Arne Westad who is the Elihu professor of History and current Affairs at Yale University.
The great majority of people alive today have come of age in a period of remarkable stability, presided over one or two superpowers.
This is not to say that the world has been peaceful; but it has to an extent been predictable.
An increasing number of great powers now jostle for regional supremacy our world has become more fragile, unpredictable – and combustible.
Westad writes that to understand the threats that now face us, we must look to the lessons of the late nineteenth and twentieth century – a time when great powers clashed and sough regional dominance, when nationalism and populism were on the rise and many thought that globalisation had failed them: a time, in other words, that carries eerie parallels to our own.
Today the stakes are very high and the conflicts are real. A large number of people who live within the Great Powers believe that others that live in other Great Powers or at least their leaders are out to get them. Two in five Americans believe that their country will go to war with China in the next five years.
Two thirds of Russians believe the war in Ukraine is a life or death “civilization struggle” with the West and about the same percentage of Indians have a favorable or very unfavorable view of China. In Europe a staggering three quarters of Germans and French view China unfavourably.
These are much higher numbers than the mutual suspicion that existed before World War 1. If one of the most abiding lessons of that war is how quickly moderate amounts of general resentment can help to produce a global catastrophe, then today’s popular views give a real cause for alarm.
Much of the pre 1914 world nationalism, plays an increasing role in today’s politics. From Xi Jinping’s quest to regain China’s glory to Vladamir Putin’s attempt at a new Russian empire, to the rise of populist attitudes in the United States, Britain, Germany and France are concerning.
Many of the other conflicts in the world including the Middle East, underpin sentiments that make major war possible, because they make it harder for even the most sensible political leaders to warn against the effect of international conflict.
Odd Arne Westad is an acclaimed scholar of modern international and global history; he is a fellow of the British and Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters. His books include; The Global Cold War, which won the Bancroft Prize, Restless Empire, winner of the Asia Society Book Award, and with J.M’ Roberts, The penguin History of the World.
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